Election years are always exciting and this years’ contests were particularly so at the local, state, and national levels. Beginning last year with the closely contested Republican primary and picking up again in September, the campus was buzzing with political discussions about the candidates and important issues. The process reached its climax last week as the polls opened and voters cast their ballots. The tension could be felt in our living room as students gathered to eat dinner and watch the returns. I was able to remain fairly relaxed throughout the night, that is until out television died, because I had confidence in the “13 Keys.”

The “13 Keys to the White House” is method, developed by Professor Allan Lichtman of American University in Washington, D.C., which predicts the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. I first heard about this method when I took a group of students to Washington in September of 2008. Dr. Lichtman spoke to our group about the “13 Keys” and his prediction for the 2008 race. Dr. Lichtman explained how he developed his method and how it has successfully predicted the outcome of the popular vote in every election since 1984 and is historically accurate to 1860. “The Keys” consist of thirteen True/False statements about the economy, military/foreign policy ventures, the candidates, and the political climate in the U.S. The system predicts that the incumbent party will win the  popular vote in the election if five or fewer statements are “False.” If more than five statements are “False,” then the challenging party wins.

I first introduce “The Keys” to the Thacher community during my TOAD talk last Presidents’ Day (pictures above). The Republican Party had not identified its candidate at that point, but the “The Keys” predicted that President Obama would win re-election in 2012. If I recall correctly, there were four “false” statements at that point. A lot changed since last February, but not enough, in my opinion, to tip the balance in favor of Governor Romney. I reviewed “The Keys” with my classes over family weekend and although some statements were “uncertain” or debatable, I used the system to predict an Obama victory with five “false” statements. Although no method of prediction is 100%, “The Keys,” once again, proved to be an accurate system of prediction in 2012.